A report on a trade game economics website that compares UK’s economy to its peers has revealed that Brexit could have a “tragic” impact on its prospects, but the impact could be limited.
The study, which was published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, found that the UK’s current GDP would only be around $8trn.
However, it says that the government’s forecast is “unlikely to be sustainable” in the long term.
“It’s hard to say whether the forecast will be sustainable in the medium term, given that the economy is far from the pre-Brexit level of GDP growth,” the report reads.
“In particular, there is no evidence to support a sustained increase in GDP growth of between 0.1% and 0.2% per year from 2019 onwards.”
The researchers analysed data from the UK Statistics Authority, which compiled a “growth index” for the UK, which measures the rate at which the economy has grown.
They then compared the growth index for the period to the average rate of growth across the entire EU in the previous 12 months.
The UK’s growth index rose by 2.4% between January and June 2019, which means it’s now more than 1% slower than its peers.
However that may not be the worst of it, the report says.
“The slowdown in the UK economy over the past few years has been driven largely by the economic slowdown in China and other emerging economies,” it states.
“However, the slowdown has also been driven by a strong rebound in the US economy.
The US economy has not grown since 2014, when the last recession ended, and this has likely contributed to the weakness in the British economy.”
However, the UK was able to recover faster than its EU peers due to a favourable trade deal between the UK and the European Union.
It’s also worth noting that the trade gap between the two countries has been narrowing, according to the report.
The report also says that trade between the US and the UK is currently the lowest in the world.
The Economist says the report was written by two researchers, one of whom is based in the U.K. and the other is based outside the country.
It says that one of the authors of the study is a former British government official.
The other was a former vice-president of the European Central Bank.
In its report, the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) says that Brexit is a “fatal mistake”.
“Brexit will leave the UK with a trade deficit of £9.5bn and a trade gap of £1.1bn, with the UK being the UK-worst performing economy.
Brexit is also a bad deal for UK businesses and for workers and families,” the authors say.
“These results are not just a matter of the economic effects of Brexit.
Brexit will have serious and potentially fatal consequences for the British labour market, the British public finances and the economy in general.”
“Brexit will also have serious consequences for international trade and for the world economy.
As a result, the Brexit vote and subsequent withdrawal from the European Economic Area (EEA) will have a profound impact on the global trade landscape, with ramifications for UK-US trade, trade and investment relations, and the global economy as a whole.”
EPI’s report also warns that Brexit “will also leave the EU with a much larger trade deficit than the UK currently has”.
However, it also says the Brexit effect on the UK could be outweighed by its effect on exports to the EU.
“The net effect on UK trade with the EU will be negative, with a positive net effect, as the UK will see a much greater gain in trade with EU member states than from the U,S.,” the report states.
EPIC says the economic impact of Brexit on the U-turn on the Brexit deal will be “considerable”.
The report says that it will “create uncertainty for UK exporters and importers, and will have profound consequences for global trade, investment and investment climate”.
“Given that the United Kingdom’s trade deficit with the rest of the EU is now estimated at more than £2.7trn, and that the U.-turn on this trade deal will lead to a further £1bn to £1,200bn in loss of trade and employment in the United States, it is likely that UK exporter and importer will find it difficult to secure any new orders or investment from the United states.”
EU leaders have not responded to the findings.
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